Ethanol: A Sustainable Alternative?

 

 

In January, 2007 I attended an orientation meeting for Gateway Ethanol in Pratt, Kansas, which is scheduled to begin making bio-fuel in July, 2007.   As a cattleman, it concerns me that feed grain prices might be artificially inflated because of the home-grown fuel craze.   I came home with more questions than answers, so decided to do some quick research on the internet.  

 

There has been much excitement, both locally and nationally, about the various potentials for bio-fuels.   It is suggested that it will relieve our dependence on foreign oil, support the local economies, help the family farmer, and most importantly, be a renewable and sustainable resource for our energy demands.   But is it really the energy-savior that we are portraying?   Long-time critic of the ethanol industry, Dr. David Pimentel of Cornell University, claims that it takes 29% more energy to make a gallon of ethanol than is contained within the gallon itself if we consider all the fossil fuels involved in producing the grain in addition to the energy needed to distill it into alcohol.1   For the last decade Dr. Pimentel has been attacked and ridiculed for tipping the Holy Grail of farm-raised fuels.   Other studies, funded heavily by the National Corn Grower’s Association (NCGA), have concluded that there is a net energy gain of about 40 percent in making ethanol.2   That is, for every 1 BTU (British Thermal Unit, a standard measure of energy) expended in growing, harvesting, transporting grain, and distilling ethanol, we get 1.67 BTUs in return.   The solar component is the “bonus” in this equation, the free and renewable additive.

 

As with most political views, I suspect the truth lies somewhere in the middle.   Due to squabbling over corn/ethanol conversion efficiencies, corn input/yield ratios, and numerous other discrepancies, I shall utilize the average figure of 1.34 to 1 provided by the Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI), with the assumption that its results are as unbiased as any.3   But should I feel the same optimistic sentiment towards the ethanol politicos?   One wonders just how profitable the ethanol business truly is be when the federal government throws approximately $3.7 billion annually towards this “renewable” resource and its primary component, corn grain.   That’s a whopping 82 cents of charity per gallon of fuel--one that has only 61 percent of the energy (BTUs) of gasoline, the forbidden “G-word!”  My home state of Kansas pitches in another 7 cents, while some states subsidize 20 cents per gallon on top of all this.17   Seems like quite a bit of philanthropy for a fuel that could be purchased on the Chicago Board of Trade for about $1.50/gallon during 2005.

 

All of the following figures come from our government’s own website at the Department of Energy.4   These are some incomprehensibly BIG figures, but very sobering to analyze.   The following amounts were calculated for the year 2005.

 

Ø     A staggering 99,890,000,000,000,000 (or 99.89 quadrillion) BTUs were consumed in 2005 in the USA, which is the same as 337 million BTUs per person per year in this country.  This is 273,671,232,876,712 BTUs per day.   To put this in perspective, this is the equivalent of 7.4 gallons of gasoline per day for every man, woman, and child in the nation.5

 

This amount of energy is comprised of mainly coal, petroleum, and natural gas (non-renewables).

 

Ø     1,125,476,000 tons of coal. (30.7 % of total energy used)

Ø     7,592,789,000 barrels of liquid petroleum (gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, propane, jet fuel). (39.6 % of total)

Ø     22,241,202,000,000 cubic feet of natural gas. (22.3 % of total)

Ø     Hydro-electric, nuclear, wind, solar, other   (7.4 % of total)

 

The remainder of these 337 million BTUs/person/year comes from the “renewable” fuels, ethanol and its cousin, MTBE (methyl tertiary-butyl ether):

 

Ø     3,960,700,000 gallons (94,000,000 barrels) of ethanol. (0.302 % of total)

Ø     1,164,000,000 gallons (28,000,000 barrels) of MTBE.   (0.11 % of total)

 

The total energy contained in this ethanol and MTBE is a paltry 410 trillion BTUs6…or enough to power this country for a day and a half.7   That’s it and that’s all.   And we used 17 percent of the nation’s corn crop to do it.8 (I knew there was a reason the NCGA claimed the higher conversion ratio!)

 

Oh, I almost forgot.   Remember I assumed the EESI’s numbers were correct in the 1.34 to 1 ratio of energy output to energy input?   That would mean only about 25 percent (100 minus 1/1.34) of the “renewable” fuel is actually renewable (solar) and not derived originally from fossil fuel.   So, we can run the country for only 9 hours9 on this inefficient solar harvesting process for which we are paying $3.7 billion annually in subsidies.  (.00103 of total energy production)

 

Simply put, is this yield from ethanol plants worth the investment?   If we could use ALL the corn, we could make enough energy to run the Stars and Stripes for 2 whole days per year! 10 The corn and ethanol cohorts would exclaim, “But isn’t something better than nothing?”   Not necessarily.   And there’s a good reason.

 

Professors of economics, Ronald Johnson of Montana State University and Gary Libecap of the University of Arizona (curiously, both states not in the Corn Belt), together with the National Bureau of Economic Research, make a good argument that public funding is easily “disguised” from its true purpose to the voting electorate.11  They contend that subsidizing various markets is a scheme that is more palatable to the voter than blatantly giving the money directly to the corn farmer with a check in the mailbox.   “Let’s just create more market for the surplus corn (i.e., ethanol plants), thereby elevating the commodity price of grains,” the smoke-and-mirrors approach goes.   This con-artistry creates construction jobs, heals dwindling rural economies, raises the standard of living for farmers and their support industries, and so on.   And no one seems the wiser because “at least we’re not buying so much oil from the doggone Arabs.”   After all, it’s our very own sacred cow.

 

On a per person basis, investment in ethanol bricks-and-mortar is a terrible choice, without government kickbacks and welfare.   Consider that capital investment is $1.66 per gallon of ethanol production.12   To give a family of four their required 1.35 billion BTUs annually, they would have to spend almost $7350 per person, or $29,000 for a “theoretical household ethanol facility.”13   Then each successive year, they would cough up 73 % of that ($19,289) in operating costs to buy the corn, the electricity, the natural gas, the labor, transportation, etc., to keep this factory making “cheap” fuel.14   Would any family do this to obtain energy independence?    Of course not.    It’s cheaper to buy gasoline at $2.50 per gallon at the local pump and just burn the corn in a fireplace to heat our homes.   But that would cut out the middle-man (read “technological progress” and “jobs”).

 

Meanwhile, back on the Chicago Board of Trade, the fledgling Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) 15 has begun to trade “carbon credits” (carbon dioxide) just as they have traded the grains for decades.   This new market will allow net “releasers” of CO2, such as power plants, steel mills, and other heavy industry to buy their carbon from responsible farmers who employ conservation methods to “capture” that carbon and “sequester” it back into the soil.   This keeps the greenhouse gases in check as envisioned in the Kyoto Protocol of 1997, and enforced in 2005.16

 

The problem is that there is no real incentive for any ag-businessman to adopt new technologies to sequester carbon into his farmland when cash corn prices hover around the $3.50/bushel mark.   It’s just business as usual…conventional farming, deep tillage, and high applications of anhydrous ammonia…aerobic practices that don’t foster carbon sequestration.   If they did that job adequately and sustainably, our soils would still have the organic matter (carbon) that they had 50 years ago.  (Take a soil sample of organic matter from a cemetery or other “protected” area and compare it with a corn field soil sample!)   The farmer is in the financial habit of looking at the price per bushel of grain, and not at the living soil’s potential to DEVOUR atmospheric carbon.   Worse yet, our government does not force heavy industry to participate in the CCX to the extent that the European governments do.  And so our farmers plant fencerow to fencerow in much the same manner they have for decades, chasing the corn/ethanol dollar around, and the CCX will struggle along without achieving its purposes of helping the environment.   When was the last time your heard our farmers express any enthusiasm about selling carbon on the CCX?

 

Of course, the apologists will say, “OK, wise guy, so where are we going to come up with 100 quadrillion BTUs of energy?”   We get it the same place that our forefathers did – from the Sun, the wind, and geothermal heating, just as we did before the Age of Petroleum.   And we face up to our national fears of the Chernobyl and Three Mile Island disasters and begin to use nuclear power carefully, safely, and HEAVILY.

 

How about spending that $3.7 billion of ethanol/corn subsidy and tax abatements on discovering new technologies for safely handling nuclear waste, or for methods of efficiently harvesting solar and wind energies?   We cannot afford to waste research dollars on energy sources that release even more CO2.   How about Congress subsidizing the so-called “green” technologies and energy efficient practices instead?   How about taking calculated steps to curb world population growth?

 

There are CO2-free alternatives, but they are not a fool’s paradise.  They require tough discipline, difficult changes, and looking our doubts and fears squarely in the face.   I hope that reaching the peak of oil production will not force mass starvation, and consequently, forced changes of behaviors.  By that point, it will be too late to strategize.  Recall that it took our civilization over a century to perfect the conversion of fossil fuels into useful products for 6 billion people.   We have only a few decades, at most, to build an entirely new intellectual database regarding energy.   Let’s start today and lose this sacred cow.

 

Sources and calculations cited:

 

  1. http://www.energyjustice.net/ethanol/pimentel2003.pdf
  2. http://www.ncga.com/ethanol/main/energy.htm
  3. http://www.eesi.org/programs/agriculture/Energy%20Balance%20update.htm
  4. http://www.eia.doe.gov/
  5. 337 million divided by 365 days per year divided by 124,000 BTUs per gallon gasoline equals 7.4 gallons of gasoline equivalent/person/day. 
  6. Using 76,100 BTUs/gallon for ethanol and 93,500 BTUs/gallon for MTBE, (http://www.epa.gov/otaq/rfgecon) times total gallons of production equals 410 trillion BTUs.
  7. 99.89 quadrillion BTUs divided by 365 days per year equals 273 trillion BTUs of daily national consumption.  410 trillion BTUs (bio-fuel) divided by 273 trillion equals 1.5 days or 36 hours.
  8. 10.985 billion bushels corn production in 2005.  http://www.agriculture.com/ag/story.jhtml?storyid=/templatedata/ag/story/data/agNews_050512,  5.1 billion gallons divided by 2.7 gallons ethanol per bushel of corn equals 1.89 billion bushels used to make ethanol.   1.89 billion divided by 10.985 billion equals 17.2 percent of total corn crop used for fuels.
  9. 36 hours times .25 equals 9 hours
  10.  10.985 billion bushels of corn divided by 1.89 billion bushels (currently used for ethanol) equals 5.89.   Using all corn would yield 5.89 times 9 hours, or 52.3 hours.
  11. from http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTABCDEWASHINGTON2000/Resources/libecap.pdf

 

  1. from http://www.siouxcityjournal.com/articles/2005/11/03/news/top/16412357f6fec73c862570ae00120ff.txt, proposed plant in Sioux City, Iowa at Sioux Gateway Airport at 60 million gallons annual ethanol output at $100 million capital investment, 100/60 equals $1.66/gallon capital and start-up costs.

 

  1. 4 people times 337 million BTUs (annual per capita requirement) equals 1.348 billion BTUs for family of four.   1.348 billion divided by 76,100 BTUs in a gallon of ethanol equals 17,713 gallons of ethanol equivalent for this family.   Then, 17713 times $1.66 per gallon of capital investment equals $29,404.

 

  1. from http://www.carbohydrateeconomy.org/library/admin/uploadedfiles/How_Much_Energy_Does_it_Take_to_Make_a_Gallon_.html, a 1995 study, linked from http://www.ethanol.org/ethanolresearch.html using “industry average” figures for energy input (81,090 BTUs) divided by energy output (111,679 BTUs) equals 72.6 % of production costs of per gallon of ethanol.   72.6% of $1.50/gallon times 17,713 gallons equals $19,289.  Note that “state-of-the-art” dry milling can achieve around 50 % input/output ratios, though these facilities are not as prevalent.
  2. http://www.chicagoclimatex.com/
  3. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyoto_Protocol "The Kyoto Protocol is an agreement under which industrialized countries will reduce their collective emissions of greenhouse gases by 5.2% compared to the year 1990 (but note that, compared to the emissions levels that would be expected by 2010 without the Protocol, this target represents a 29% cut). The goal is to lower overall emissions of six greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, HFCs, and PFCs - calculated as an average over the five-year period of 2008-12. National targets range from 8% reductions for the European Union and some others to 7% for the US, 6% for Japan, 0% for Russia, and permitted increases of 8% for Australia and 10% for Iceland."

 

      17.  Based upon average close of Chicago Board of Trade numbers for ethanol contract, 29000 gallons, in 2005.   Subsidy numbers from 108th Congress, Federal ethanol tax credit of $.51/gallon at National Taxpayer’s Union at http://www.ntu.org/main/press_papers.php?PressID=855&org_name=NTU.   Add to this the 2005 total corn subsidy of $9.413 billion on 10.985 billion bushels of corn equals 85.7 cents/bushel subsidy, divided by 2.7 gallons of ethanol per bushel equals 31.7 cents of ethanol subsidy through direct payments for corn, corn production flexibility payments, loan deficiency payments, market loss assistance, counter-cyclical payments, farm market gains, and other various deficiency payments, commodity certificates, warehouse market gains, farm storage, and warehouse storage.   From Environmental Working Group at http://www.ewg.org/farm/progdetail.php?fips=00000&progcode=corn